Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 4.801501 5.619667 6.523238 7.593499 8.824905 10.195591 11.835185
2025-09-21 3.519142 4.615990 5.957196 7.710142 9.932296 12.646147 16.201537
2025-09-28 2.696262 3.894480 5.490233 7.752836 10.857086 14.942005 20.695132
2025-10-05 2.348341 3.676433 5.574927 8.452783 12.662636 18.544211 27.317819
2025-10-12 1.984840 3.340904 5.406033 8.727294 13.866835 21.430702 33.287101
2025-10-19 1.709416 3.072230 5.269140 8.993730 15.051161 24.381970 39.653222
2025-10-26 1.451461 2.774473 5.023742 9.028418 15.846394 26.795965 45.433419
2025-11-02 1.197699 2.430446 4.636584 8.752997 16.072897 28.300752 49.894930
2025-11-09 0.973995 2.095160 4.203981 8.320596 15.952021 29.186584 53.387007
2025-11-16 0.828582 1.881509 3.955123 8.174294 16.298380 30.873552 58.375890
2025-11-23 0.716031 1.712123 3.761291 8.097020 16.748082 32.767817 63.890846
2025-11-30 0.662752 1.659206 3.789817 8.455748 18.060323 36.342928 72.772731
2025-12-07 0.586297 1.542417 3.673403 8.515074 18.817147 39.008103 80.328490
2025-12-14 0.517670 1.430746 3.551142 8.546517 19.526212 41.666053 88.163997
2025-12-21 0.457309 1.326790 3.428839 8.558897 20.194780 44.310287 96.234098
2025-12-28 0.449396 1.356535 3.622507 9.312754 22.550077 50.594555 112.190997
2026-01-04 0.415155 1.308473 3.620511 9.608284 23.922201 54.970658 124.629618
2026-01-11 0.384109 1.262777 3.616733 9.897838 25.312216 59.512851 137.820617
2026-01-18 0.344951 1.184941 3.517211 9.935138 26.115607 62.856898 148.745720
2026-01-25 0.297078 1.069634 3.298032 9.633888 26.068770 64.307970 155.665024
2026-02-01 0.249843 0.944702 3.029728 9.161084 25.536856 64.598566 160.011690
2026-02-08 0.219486 0.867973 2.885160 9.001077 25.771994 66.681461 168.612589
2026-02-15 0.195202 0.806174 2.773723 8.916561 26.190822 69.234889 178.525026